As South Korea prepare to host Venezuela, the statistical landscape offers a compelling narrative. Despite being a friendly, South Korea's dominant home form, marked by 9 wins in 13 matches, positions them as clear favourites. With a probability of 91% to secure victory, South Korea are expected to translate their statistical superiority into a solid
South Korea vs Venezuela — Analysis and Odds | Friendlies | 02/10/2026
28.09.2026
09:40
South Korea
91%
VS
Venezuela
2%
Prediction
South Korea
Over 2.5 Goals
YES
53% probability
Both Teams Score
NO
31% probability
45%Model accuracy (last 60 days) — 133/298
★ BEST BET
South Korea Win
South Korea's probability of victory stands at a commanding 91%, representing a significant value edge over the implied odds probability. Their impressive home record, with 9 wins out of 13 matches, underscores their dominance on home soil. Moreover, Venezuela's poor away form, with 10 defeats in their last 11 away games, further supports the likelihood of a South Korean win.
💡 South Korea's defensive prowess at home is noteworthy, conceding an average of just 0.92 goals per match. This defensive solidity, combined with Venezuela's low away goal average of 0.64, hints at a challenging evening for the visitors.
Final Result
South Korea 0 : 0 Venezuela
Our prediction: 1 ✗
As South Korea prepare to host Venezuela, the statistical landscape offers a compelling narrative. Despite being a friendly, South Korea's dominant home form, marked by 9 wins in 13 matches, positions them as clear favourites. With a probability of 91% to secure victory, South Korea are expected to translate their statistical superiority into a solid performance. Without the distraction of league standings, both teams focus solely on refining tactics and building momentum. Notably, South Korea's defence, conceding just 0.92 goals per game at home, contrasts sharply with Venezuela's struggles on the road, where they concede over 2 goals per match. This disparity in form and defensive strength suggests South Korea will aim to exploit Venezuela's vulnerabilities from the outset.
Team Statistics
South Korea
WLLWW
12
Wins
2
Draws
6
Losses
Avg Scored1.6
Avg Conceded0.85
Over 2.540%
BTTS15%
Clean Sheets11
Failed to Score6
Home9W 1D 3L
Away3W 1D 3L
Venezuela
WLLWL
5
Wins
3
Draws
12
Losses
Avg Scored1.05
Avg Conceded1.7
Over 2.545%
BTTS45%
Clean Sheets6
Failed to Score7
Home4W 3D 2L
Away1W 0D 10L
Form Under Pressure
South Korea's recent form is marked by an intriguing pattern of results. Winning three of their last five, including a 3-0 triumph over Ecuador, highlights their attacking capability, especially at home. Losses against Mexico and South Africa, both away, reveal their comparative vulnerability on the road. Venezuela's form contrasts sharply. Despite beating Iraq 2-0 away, they have suffered three losses in their last five games, including a tight 2-1 defeat against Türkiye. Their away record is particularly concerning, having conceded an average of over two goals per match. The psychological edge seems to favour South Korea, buoyed by strong home performances. Venezuela's struggles away suggest a fragile confidence that could be exploited.
Expert Prediction
The expectation is for South Korea to assert control early, leveraging their home advantage. With a 91% probability of winning, they are poised to capitalise on Venezuela's defensive frailties, particularly given the visitors' average of 2.09 goals conceded per away match. Priced at odds of 1.10, South Korea's win represents value, aligning with model predictions. The match context, featuring two teams focused on improvement rather than league positions, suggests Venezuela might adopt a cautious approach, hoping to counter-attack. For this prediction to falter, Venezuela would need a significant defensive improvement, an unlikely scenario given recent performances. A draw or upset appears improbable, given Venezuela's away struggles.
Predictions
In this friendly encounter, South Korea and Venezuela look to fine-tune their strategies and test squad depth. South Korea, buoyed by their consistent home performances, aim to maintain their impressive form as they prepare for more competitive fixtures. A win would further bolster their confidence, highlighting their ability to dominate lesser-ranked teams. Venezuela, on the other hand, sees this as an opportunity to improve their dismal away record, which has seen them win just once in their last 11 away games. For them, a positive result would signify progress in their rebuilding phase, hinting at potential for growth despite recent form struggles. Both teams, absent league pressures, focus on performance levels and tactical adjustments, making this match a valuable exercise in preparation for future challenges.
How the Match Is Likely to Unfold
In the opening 20 minutes, expect South Korea to seize possession, pushing Venezuela back with their organised pressing. With a 45% average possession in recent games, Korea will look to dominate early, setting a high tempo. The match is likely to settle into a pattern of Korean control, punctuated by Venezuelan counter-attacks. However, with Venezuela averaging just 0.64 goals away, South Korea's defensive line is expected to remain robust. As the game progresses into its final phase, South Korea's fresher legs, thanks to an 8-day rest, should see them finish stronger. Their second-half scoring record supports a late flourish. This pattern complements the recommended market of a South Korea win, especially if they strike early. A cautious start from Venezuela could delay scoring, but South Korea's relentless attack is likely to break through.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will win South Korea vs Venezuela?
South Korea are predicted to win with a 91% probability. Their home dominance, with an average of 1.85 goals scored per match, and a strong clean sheet record of 11 in 20 matches, supports this outlook.
2
What are the odds for South Korea vs Venezuela?
The odds are South Korea at 1.10, Draw at 15.50, Venezuela at 45.00. South Korea's odds imply a 91% probability, which matches the model's prediction, indicating value in a South Korean win.
3
Will there be over 2.5 goals in South Korea vs Venezuela?
The model suggests a 53% probability for over 2.5 goals, with total xG at 3.83. Given South Korea's attacking strength and Venezuela's defensive issues, over 2.5 goals is recommended.
4
What is South Korea's recent form?
South Korea's last five results include wins against Ecuador (3-0) and Czechia (2-1), but losses to Mexico (0-1) and South Africa (0-1). They have been strong at home, with 9 wins and an average of 1.85 goals scored, alongside 11 clean sheets in recent matches.
5
Is the Double Chance bet worth it for South Korea vs Venezuela?
Double Chance 1X is priced at 1.02, X2 at 10.00, 12 at 1.05. The South Korea or Draw option offers a combined probability of 98%, reflecting high confidence in South Korea's ability to avoid defeat.
6
Are there injury concerns for South Korea vs Venezuela?
Both squads appear fit with no significant injuries reported. This lack of absences means both teams can field their strongest line-ups, likely supporting the prediction of a South Korea victory.
📋 More Predictions: Friendlies
