As Vanuatu hosts New Caledonia, fans gather in Port Vila with anticipation. This friendly clash promises intrigue, with both teams looking to fine-tune their strategies. Vanuatu's recent uptick in form, with three wins on the trot, sets an optimistic tone. Yet, New Caledonia's away prowess, boasting only one defeat in their last 11 outings, cannot
Football Prediction: Vanuatu vs New Caledonia | International Friendlies | 27/09/2026
23.09.2026
09:39
Vanuatu
13%
VS
New Caledonia
55%
Prediction
New Caledonia
Over 2.5 Goals
NO
47% probability
Both Teams Score
NO
37% probability
45%Model accuracy (last 60 days) — 133/294
★ BEST BET
New Caledonia Win
New Caledonia holds a 55% likelihood of winning, a clear edge over the model's implied 50% chance. Their away form is compelling, with only one loss in 11 matches, conceding just 0.45 goals per game. Vanuatu's home defence, leaking 1.64 goals per game, is vulnerable to New Caledonia's efficient attack.
💡 New Caledonia's away record is formidable, having lost just once in 11 matches, averaging 0.45 goals conceded per game. This defensive solidity gives them a significant edge over Vanuatu.
Final Result
Vanuatu 4 : 1 New Caledonia
Our prediction: 2 ✗
As Vanuatu hosts New Caledonia, fans gather in Port Vila with anticipation. This friendly clash promises intrigue, with both teams looking to fine-tune their strategies. Vanuatu's recent uptick in form, with three wins on the trot, sets an optimistic tone. Yet, New Caledonia's away prowess, boasting only one defeat in their last 11 outings, cannot be overlooked. With Vanuatu conceding an average of 1.64 goals at home, New Caledonia's efficient attack might exploit these defensive frailties. While no league points are at stake, both teams will seek to strengthen their tactical frameworks, making this encounter a compelling watch.
Team Statistics
Vanuatu
WDWWW
8
Wins
4
Draws
8
Losses
Avg Scored1.2
Avg Conceded2
Over 2.560%
BTTS55%
Clean Sheets5
Failed to Score6
Home4W 3D 4L
Away4W 1D 4L
New Caledonia
LLDDW
9
Wins
7
Draws
4
Losses
Avg Scored1.65
Avg Conceded0.7
Over 2.540%
BTTS25%
Clean Sheets11
Failed to Score10
Home5W 1D 3L
Away4W 6D 1L
The Form Book
Recent form favours Vanuatu, who have won three consecutive matches, including a 1-0 victory over Fiji. Their attacking output at home remains robust, averaging 1.55 goals per game. However, their defence remains a concern, conceding 1.64 goals on average. New Caledonia's form is less encouraging, having lost two of their last five, including a 2-0 defeat to Solomon Islands. Despite this, their away form is impressive, with just one loss in 11 games, highlighting their defensive strength. Vanuatu enters with momentum, but New Caledonia's resilience on the road could be decisive.
Our Prediction
Our Prediction
The Market Analysis
The Market Analysis
The Story So Far
The Story So Far
What Could Go Wrong
What Could Go Wrong
Frequently Asked Questions
1
What are the odds for Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?
Vanuatu is priced at odds of 7.69, the draw at odds of 3.13, and New Caledonia at odds of 2.00. With New Caledonia's probability at 55%, their odds represent value compared to the implied 50%.
2
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?
The model suggests a 47% chance for over 2.5 goals. With odds of 2.13, this market lacks value given both teams' recent scoring patterns and head-to-head results.
3
Will both teams score in Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?
With a BTTS probability of 37%, odds of 2.70 for 'Yes' are not favourable. Vanuatu's home defence is suspect, but New Caledonia's clean sheet record is strong.
4
What is Vanuatu's recent form?
Vanuatu's last five results are three wins, a draw, and a loss, with scores of 1-0, 2-2, 2-1, 1-1, and 2-1. At home, they have 4 wins, averaging 1.55 goals, with 5 clean sheets.
5
What is New Caledonia's away form this season?
New Caledonia's away form is strong, with 4 wins, 6 draws, and 1 loss. They score an average of 1.55 goals per away match, conceding just 0.45.
6
Is Over 1.5 goals a safe bet in Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?
With a 63% probability for over 1.5 goals, this market appears safer. Both teams have seen 2+ goals in a majority of recent matches.
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