As Saburtalo and Larne prepare to face off in the UEFA Europa League, the stakes are high despite the lack of available league standings data. Both teams are navigating fluctuating forms, as evidenced by Saburtalo's recent record of one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches. Larne, having recently suffered heavy
Saburtalo vs Larne — Analysis and Odds | UEFA Europa League | 11/08/2026
07.08.2026
09:41
Saburtalo
39%
VS
Larne
31%
Prediction
Saburtalo @ 1.94
Over 2.5 Goals
NO @ 2.15
35% probability
Both Teams Score
NO @ 1.93
38% probability
53%Model accuracy (last 60 days) — 140/263
★ BEST BET
Over 1.5 @ 1.38
The model assigns a 71% probability to the game exceeding 1.5 goals, offering a value edge over the implied probability of 72.5%. Saburtalo averages 1.45 goals per game, while Larne's away form shows an average of 1.2 goals scored. The historical trend of both teams suggests an open match, making Over 1.5 goals the most compelling and risk-adjusted option.
💡 Saburtalo's form has been on a downward trend, evidenced by their recent points per game dropping to 1.2, which highlights their current struggle to maintain consistency.
Final Result
Saburtalo 2 : 1 Larne
Our prediction: 1 ✓
As Saburtalo and Larne prepare to face off in the UEFA Europa League, the stakes are high despite the lack of available league standings data. Both teams are navigating fluctuating forms, as evidenced by Saburtalo's recent record of one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches. Larne, having recently suffered heavy defeats against FK Crvena Zvezda, will aim to regain their earlier momentum. Interestingly, Saburtalo has managed to score an average of 1.45 goals per game across their last 20 matches, suggesting a potential edge in attack. Yet, their declining points per game indicate underlying vulnerabilities that Larne might capitalise on. With both teams facing similar rest periods and match frequencies, the neutral venue levels the playing field, setting the stage for a clash where tactical nuances could decide the outcome.
Team Statistics
Saburtalo
DDWLD
9
Wins
5
Draws
6
Losses
Avg Scored1.45
Avg Conceded1.15
Over 2.545%
BTTS60%
Clean Sheets6
Failed to Score3
Home4W 3D 3L
Away5W 2D 3L
Larne
DLLWW
11
Wins
4
Draws
5
Losses
Avg Scored1.55
Avg Conceded1.15
Over 2.550%
BTTS40%
Clean Sheets10
Failed to Score5
Home5W 2D 3L
Away6W 2D 2L
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.23
Double Chance X21.98
Double Chance 121.3
Over 1.5 Goals1.38
Under 1.5 Goals2.87
The Verdict
The prediction for this match is over 1.5 goals, priced at odds of 1.38. Supporting this choice, Saburtalo averages 1.45 goals per game, indicating a strong offensive presence. Larne's away form, with an average of 1.2 goals scored per game, complements this narrative. Moreover, the model assigns a 71% probability to this outcome, comfortably above the market-implied probability of 72.5%. Should the match remain tight, the Double Chance market offers a safer alternative. The primary risk lies in both teams having recently struggled to convert chances into goals, which could limit scoring opportunities.
The Match in Context
Neither team has the comfort of a home advantage, making this neutral venue clash an intriguing encounter. Saburtalo's recent form shows a mix of results, with a single victory in their last five outings, highlighting inconsistency. Larne, similarly, has experienced a dip, particularly noticeable in their last two heavy losses in European competition. While neither team can rely on league standings to gauge their progress, the match presents an opportunity to gain valuable momentum going forward in the tournament. The previous 0-0 draw between these sides suggests a balanced contest, but both will be eager to find a breakthrough this time. With the stakes high in this knockout format, expect a cautious yet competitive affair.
Key Statistics
Expected goals data reveals Saburtalo with an xG of 1.34 and Larne with 1.15, indicating a closely contested match. Saburtalo's clean sheet frequency is 30%, which suggests they are somewhat susceptible at the back. Larne, having achieved 10 clean sheets in their last 20 games, boasts a strong defensive record. Saburtalo's goal-scoring average at home is 1.2 per match, aligned with Larne's away scoring average, also at 1.2. The BTTS rate stands at 60% for Saburtalo, hinting at their propensity for matches where both teams score. With a 45% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals for Saburtalo, there is a hint of volatility in their results, suggesting potential for goals in this fixture. These statistics collectively underscore the potential for an engaging and open encounter.
Risk Scenarios: The Case Against
This prediction faces several potential pitfalls. Saburtalo's declining recent form, with only one win in their last five matches, raises concerns about their ability to dominate the game. Their defensive record, with 1.15 goals conceded on average, could be exploited by a Larne side eager to bounce back from recent defeats. Larne's strong away record, boasting six wins in their last ten away matches, suggests they are capable of pulling off an upset. If Larne's defence, which has kept ten clean sheets in the past 20 matches, holds firm, the game could see fewer goals than anticipated. Given these considerations, while the Over 1.5 goals bet remains strong, a Double Chance bet on Larne could provide a safety net against Saburtalo's unpredictability.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
What are the odds for Saburtalo vs Larne?
Saburtalo is priced at odds of 1.94, the draw at 3.47, and Larne at 4.42. The implied probability for Saburtalo is 51.5%, which is slightly above the model's 39%, indicating less value compared to the model's assessment.
2
What is Larne's away form this season?
Larne's recent away form shows two wins, one draw, and two losses. They have scored an average of 1.2 goals per away match, suggesting a competent but not dominant performance on the road.
3
Which players are key to watch in Saburtalo vs Larne?
Saburtalo's attack, averaging 1.45 goals per game, indicates a team capable of creating and converting chances, while Larne's ability to score 1.2 goals per away match showcases their attacking threat. Both teams rely on collective effectiveness rather than individual brilliance.
4
What is the Draw No Bet option for Saburtalo vs Larne?
Draw No Bet for Saburtalo is priced at odds of 1.42 and for Larne at 3.20. This market provides a refund on the stake if the match ends in a draw, offering a more secure alternative to the straight win bet, particularly considering the close nature of the previous encounter.
