In Parma, the home side faces Udinese in what is a crucial Serie A clash at the Stadio Ennio Tardini. Both teams find themselves precariously positioned in the league standings, each occupying a spot in the relegation zone with just four points from seven games. Parma, ranked 19th, have shown a slight uptick in form
Prediction: Parma vs Udinese | Serie A | 28/10/2026
24.10.2026
09:39
Parma
44%
VS
Udinese
30%
Prediction
Parma @ 2.9
Over 2.5 Goals
NO @ 2.2
46% probability
Both Teams Score
YES @ 1.85
50% probability
46%Model accuracy (last 60 days) — 135/293
★ BEST BET
Parma Win @ 2.9
Parma are favoured with a 44% probability of winning, offering a value edge over the implied 34.5% from the odds. Their recent home form is slightly better, and they have a higher expected goals (xG) of 1.58 compared to Udinese's 1.16. Additionally, Udinese have struggled away, losing five of their last eight matches on the road.
💡 Parma have scored an average of 0.92 goals per home game, while Udinese concede an average of 1.75 goals away. This discrepancy suggests that Parma's attack could exploit Udinese's defensive vulnerabilities.
In Parma, the home side faces Udinese in what is a crucial Serie A clash at the Stadio Ennio Tardini. Both teams find themselves precariously positioned in the league standings, each occupying a spot in the relegation zone with just four points from seven games. Parma, ranked 19th, have shown a slight uptick in form with a recent win over Genoa, yet their goal difference of -9 highlights ongoing defensive issues. Meanwhile, Udinese, sitting 16th, have endured a torrid run, losing their last five matches, which underscores their struggle to find consistency. With both sides desperate for points, this encounter could be pivotal in their battle to climb out of the relegation mire.
Team Statistics
Parma
LLWLD
6
Wins
3
Draws
11
Losses
Avg Scored0.7
Avg Conceded1.3
Over 2.525%
BTTS35%
Clean Sheets5
Failed to Score9
Home4W 3D 5L
Away2W 0D 6L
Udinese
LLDLL
6
Wins
4
Draws
10
Losses
Avg Scored1.15
Avg Conceded1.5
Over 2.545%
BTTS50%
Clean Sheets4
Failed to Score6
Home4W 3D 5L
Away2W 1D 5L
Venue
Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma
22,885 capacity · Grass
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.55
Double Chance X21.36
Double Chance 121.35
Over 1.5 Goals1.36
Under 1.5 Goals3.2
Verdict: Where the Data Points
The prediction leans towards a Parma victory with a 44% probability at odds of 2.90, offering a value edge of 9.5 percentage points over the implied probability. Tactically, Parma's ability to exploit Udinese's weak defensive structure, especially with their wing-play, supports this pick. However, considering the volatility of both teams, a safer market like Double Chance (1X) at odds of 1.55 may offer better risk-adjusted value. The biggest risk remains Parma's inconsistency in front of goal, having failed to score in nine of their last 20 matches.
Tactical Battle: How This Match Will Be Played
The tactical battle in this match will revolve around whether Parma can exploit Udinese's defensive frailties with their home advantage. Parma typically line up in a 3-4-2-1 formation, focusing on compact defence and quick transitions from the back. Their reliance on wing-backs to provide width is crucial, as they aim to stretch Udinese's backline and create crossing opportunities. Udinese also employ a 3-4-2-1 system but have struggled with maintaining a high defensive line, often leaving gaps that opponents exploit with pace. Their midfield will need to be more disciplined to prevent Parma from finding space between the lines. The key positional battle could be in midfield, where the team that controls possession will likely dictate the tempo and flow of the game. Parma's ability to press effectively and disrupt Udinese's build-up will be essential in turning defensive solidity into attacking opportunities.
The Numbers That Decide This Match
Parma's home form reveals a slight statistical edge, averaging 0.92 goals per game while conceding 1.25. This is contrasted with Udinese's away record, where they have scored 1.25 goals per game but conceded 1.75. The gap in defensive solidity could be significant, as Parma's home matches have seen fewer goals, indicating a tighter defensive approach. Additionally, Parma's clean sheet rate at home is 25%, suggesting they can be resolute at the back. Comparatively, Udinese's away clean sheet rate is non-existent, which may leave them vulnerable to Parma's attacks. Furthermore, Parma's expected goals (xG) of 1.58 at home outstrips Udinese's 1.16 away, pointing to a potentially decisive offensive advantage.
What Could Go Wrong
The primary risk to the prediction of a Parma win lies in their own erratic form. They have only managed one win in their last five matches, and their recent 0-3 defeat to Torino at home highlights vulnerabilities. Additionally, while Udinese's away form is poor, they have shown the capacity to score, averaging 1.25 goals per away game. This suggests they could exploit any defensive lapses by Parma. Udinese's recent history against Parma includes a 2-0 victory in November 2025, indicating they are capable of a result. The bettor should be cautious, as Parma's failure to score in 45% of their last 20 matches could mean that even a marginally improved Udinese performance might secure an unexpected draw or win. Considering these factors, hedging with a Double Chance bet may be prudent.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will win Parma vs Udinese?
Parma are predicted to win with a 44% probability. They have a better home record, scoring 0.92 goals per game and conceding 1.25, compared to Udinese's away record of conceding 1.75 goals per game.
2
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Parma vs Udinese?
The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is 46%, with odds of 2.20. Given the teams' defensive vulnerabilities, especially Udinese's, a high-scoring game is possible but not guaranteed.
3
What is Udinese's away form this season?
Udinese's away form has been inconsistent, with one win, one draw, and two losses in their last five away matches. They have scored 1.25 goals per away game on average.
4
What does the head-to-head record say about Parma vs Udinese?
In their last 10 meetings, both teams have won four times each, with two draws. The matches have averaged 3.1 goals, with 60% seeing over 2.5 goals, indicating a competitive rivalry.
5
What is at stake in Parma vs Udinese?
Both teams are in the relegation zone with four points each from seven matches. Parma sit 19th, while Udinese are 16th. A win could be crucial for either side to climb out of the danger zone.
6
Are there injury concerns for Parma vs Udinese?
There are no significant injuries reported for either team, meaning both squads should be at full strength, potentially impacting the match's dynamics positively for both sides.
