This friendly fixture between Ludogorets and Septemvri Sofia may not carry the weight of league points, but for both sides, it's a chance to refine tactics and test their mettle against familiar domestic opposition. Ludogorets, hosting the match, have been a formidable force on home soil, evidenced by their recent form and goal-scoring prowess. While
Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia — Prediction | Friendlies Clubs | 10/07/2026
06.07.2026
09:40
Ludogorets
79%
VS
Septemvri Sofia
5%
Prediction
Ludogorets
Over 2.5 Goals
YES
53% probability
Both Teams Score
NO
39% probability
64%Model accuracy (last 60 days) — 71/111
★ BEST BET
Ludogorets Win
Ludogorets, with a commanding 79% probability, are expected to win, posing a significant value edge against Septemvri Sofia's mere 5% chance. Their remarkable home record, featuring 7 wins in 13 matches and an average of 1.85 goals scored per game, underpins this prediction. Moreover, Ludogorets have dominated recent encounters, winning 9 of the last 10 meetings, showcasing their historical supremacy.
💡 Ludogorets have maintained an impressive average of 1.85 goals per game at home, a stark contrast to Septemvri Sofia's away average of just 0.75 goals scored, highlighting the likely dominance in attack for the home team.
Final Result
Ludogorets 1 : 0 Septemvri Sofia
Our prediction: 1 ✓
This friendly fixture between Ludogorets and Septemvri Sofia may not carry the weight of league points, but for both sides, it's a chance to refine tactics and test their mettle against familiar domestic opposition. Ludogorets, hosting the match, have been a formidable force on home soil, evidenced by their recent form and goal-scoring prowess. While standing data may be non-existent for this friendly, Ludogorets' average of 1.85 goals per home game paints a picture of a team that knows how to utilise their ground advantage. Meanwhile, Septemvri Sofia, with less impressive away performances, will see this as an opportunity to assess their tactical flexibility. With both teams having rested for five days, the stage is set for a contest that, while not burdened by the pressure of league standings, is rich in opportunity for strategic experimentation and development.
Team Statistics
Ludogorets
DWWWL
10
Wins
5
Draws
5
Losses
Avg Scored1.65
Avg Conceded0.9
Over 2.545%
BTTS40%
Clean Sheets9
Failed to Score6
Home7W 4D 2L
Away3W 1D 3L
Septemvri Sofia
LWWWD
7
Wins
6
Draws
7
Losses
Avg Scored1.05
Avg Conceded1.2
Over 2.540%
BTTS45%
Clean Sheets7
Failed to Score6
Home5W 4D 3L
Away2W 2D 4L
Match-Up Analysis & Verdict
In this match-up, Ludogorets' formidable home attack, which averages 1.85 goals per game, is set to exploit Septemvri Sofia's leaky away defence, which concedes 1.38 goals on average. The model gives Ludogorets a 79% probability of victory, with their attacking prowess likely to overwhelm their opponents. The value edge is clear when compared to the odds of Septemvri Sofia winning, which stand at a meagre 5%. With the home side's historical dominance, having won 9 of the last 10 meetings, backing a Ludogorets win at odds of 1.27 represents a calculated gamble. While the over 2.5 goals market is tempting, given a 53% likelihood, a straightforward home win offers greater assurance.
Profile: Ludogorets
Ludogorets have carved out a reputation for being a formidable opponent, especially at home. Although league standings are not available for this friendly match, their season has been characterised by a strong home record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and only 2 losses in 13 matches. This is complemented by an impressive average of 1.85 goals scored per home game, demonstrating a potent attacking threat. Recent form shows a mixed bag with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, including a thrilling 7-4 victory over Etar Veliko Tarnovo. This suggests a team capable of explosive attacking performances. Ludogorets are a possession-oriented side, averaging 67% possession in their last five outings, which aligns with their tendency to dominate the ball and create numerous chances, averaging 5.6 shots on target in the same period. Their tactical identity revolves around control and precision, though they must remain wary of defensive lapses, having conceded 18 goals across 20 games. The absence of significant injuries means they can field their preferred system, allowing them to leverage their strengths against a less consistent opponent.
Profile: Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia's season narrative has been one of trying to find consistency, with a record that highlights their struggles on the road. Their away form has seen them win only 2 of 8 matches, scoring an average of just 0.75 goals per game while conceding 1.38 goals on average. This paints a picture of a side that could be vulnerable when away from home comforts. Their recent run of form, however, includes a string of encouraging home performances, with a narrow 2-3 defeat against Slavia Sofia being a recent blemish on an otherwise positive streak of three consecutive wins. Septemvri Sofia tend to adopt a counter-attacking approach when playing away, preferring to absorb pressure and break quickly, though their modest average possession of 32% suggests they may struggle to control the game. With no significant injuries reported, they will hope their quick transitions can exploit any gaps left by an attacking Ludogorets side. Their biggest threat comes from set-pieces and counter-attacks, yet their vulnerability in open play remains a concern.
What Could Go Wrong
Despite the strong confidence in Ludogorets securing a victory, football's inherent unpredictability always leaves room for an upset. Septemvri Sofia's recent form has been on an upward trend, with a string of wins that could fuel their belief. Their ability to execute counter-attacks might find joy against a Ludogorets side that occasionally leaves space at the back, as evidenced by their 9 clean sheets in 20 matches, suggesting potential defensive vulnerabilities. Ludogorets' last few games saw them drop points, drawing 2-2 against FC Botosani and losing 1-0 to CSKA 1948. These results show they are not invincible at home. Septemvri Sofia's path to success lies in frustrating Ludogorets' possession play and capitalising on set-pieces. If Ludogorets underestimate their opponents, an unexpected result is possible. A prudent bettor might consider hedging with a Double Chance or Draw No Bet market, given the odds and the visiting side's improving form.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia?
The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 53%, with the head-to-head data showing 70% of past meetings surpassing this mark. Given Ludogorets' attacking strength, a bet on over 2.5 goals seems reasonable, though not guaranteed.
2
Will both teams score in Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia?
The BTTS probability is 39%, with Ludogorets keeping 9 clean sheets in 20 matches and Septemvri Sofia failing to score in 6. Septemvri Sofia's away scoring struggles make a 'No' bet more likely.
3
What is Ludogorets's recent form?
Ludogorets' last five results include a 2-2 draw with FC Botosani, a 7-4 win over Etar Veliko Tarnovo, a 0-0 draw with Lokomotiv Plovdiv, a 1-0 win against CSKA Sofia, and a 1-0 loss to CSKA 1948. Their home form remains strong with 7 wins, averaging 1.85 goals and 9 clean sheets this season.
4
What is Septemvri Sofia's away form this season?
Septemvri Sofia's away form has been less than stellar, with only 2 wins in 8 games. They have scored 0.75 goals per away match while conceding 1.38 on average. Their last five results include a 1-1 draw with Botev Vratsa and a 1-2 loss to Slavia Sofia, reflecting inconsistencies on the road.
