Iran vs New Zealand Tips Today | World Cup | 16/06/2026

World Cup|16/06/2026

Iran

63%

VS

New Zealand

9%

63%

28%

9%

IranDraw 28%New Zealand

🏆

Prediction

Iran @ 1.86

⚽

Over 2.5 Goals

NO @ 2.25

48% probability

🔁

Both Teams Score

NO @ 2

34% probability

Model Confidence

88%

★ BEST BET

Iran Win @ 1.86

With a 63% probability, Iran's home performance offers a strong case for a win, especially against a New Zealand side with only 9% probability of victory. Iran's home defence conceding just 0.58 goals on average and their attacking threat averaging 1.5 goals per game make them formidable. The model's suggestion of a 1-0 scoreline aligns well with these stats, reinforcing Iran's edge.

💡 New Zealand's away form is particularly revealing; they average just 1.25 goals scored per match and face a robust Iranian defence that concedes only 0.58 goals at home. This imbalance highlights New Zealand's attacking struggles on the road.

As Iran hosts New Zealand in this World Cup clash, the stakes are high, not just for the points, but for a demonstration of contrasting styles. Iran's recent form is a testament to their defensive solidity, conceding only 0.8 goals per game in their last 20 matches, a stark contrast to New Zealand's more porous defence, which has let in 1.25 goals on average. This match offers Iran a chance to assert their dominance at home, where they have been particularly strong, while New Zealand seeks to overcome their recent decline.

📊 Team Statistics

Iran

DWWWL

11

Wins

4

Draws

5

Losses

Avg Scored1.75

Avg Conceded0.8

Over 2.555%

BTTS40%

Clean Sheets10

Failed to Score6

Home7W 3D 2L

Away4W 1D 3L

New Zealand

LLWLL

8

Wins

2

Draws

10

Losses

Avg Scored2.15

Avg Conceded1.25

Over 2.560%

BTTS35%

Clean Sheets6

Failed to Score7

Home5W 0D 3L

Away3W 2D 7L

Recent Form: Scoring & Defensive Patterns

Iran's recent form, with three wins in their last five matches, showcases their attacking prowess, netting eight goals while conceding just three. Their home advantage is pronounced, scoring 1.5 goals per match and conceding only 0.58. In contrast, New Zealand's form is concerning, with four losses in their last five, including heavy defeats like 4-0 against Haiti. They have scored just once in those away games, averaging 1.25 goals conceded. Iran's solid defence and consistent scoring at home make them the more formidable side.

Best Bet Recommendation

The best bet is Iran to win at odds of 1.86. The model assigns a 63% probability, offering a value edge over the implied 54% from the odds. Iran's home form, scoring 1.5 goals per game, supports this. Although no head-to-head data exists, the stark contrast in defensive records strengthens this prediction. As an alternative, under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.62 is viable, given the expected low-scoring nature. A combination of Iran to win and under 2.5 goals could be considered for those seeking greater returns.

Goal Markets: The Full Analysis

The expected goals suggest a relatively low-scoring affair, with Iran having an xG of 1.51 against New Zealand's 0.42, totalling 1.93. Over 2.5 goals is priced at odds of 2.25, with a 48% likelihood, offering limited value against the implied probability. Iran's matches have seen over 2.5 goals 55% of the time, yet New Zealand's away struggles indicate a tighter game. Both teams to score, priced at 2.00, is less likely, given Iran's 10 clean sheets in 20 games. The under 1.5 goals market at odds of 2.80 could be a viable alternative, particularly if New Zealand fails to breach Iran's defence. Historically, Iran tends to score late, suggesting a cautious approach in the first half. Ranked by value, under 2.5 goals leads, followed by under 1.5, and lastly BTTS.

Frequently Asked Questions